Clinical research

SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis: Progression to type 2 diabetes

Prespecified analysis of a phase 3 randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial. 1,032 of 2,539, over 176 weeks of treatment followed by a 17-week off-treatment period. Sponsor: Eli Lilly and Company.

SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis (NCT04184622) tested tirzepatide once weekly at 5 mg, 10 mg or 15 mg against placebo in the 1,032 surmount-1 participants who had both obesity and prediabetes.Three years of tirzepatide produced substantial sustained weight reduction and a markedly lower risk of progression to type 2 diabetes than placebo Primary source linked: the source is a citable peer-reviewed / registry record, which we have not independently re-extracted from the full paper in this session.

Study design

DesignPrespecified analysis of a phase 3 randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial
PopulationThe 1,032 SURMOUNT-1 participants who had both obesity and prediabetes
Sample size1,032 of 2,539
InterventionTirzepatide once weekly (5 mg, 10 mg or 15 mg)
ComparatorPlacebo
Duration176 weeks of treatment followed by a 17-week off-treatment period
Primary endpointProgression to type 2 diabetes, plus three-year weight change and safety
SponsorEli Lilly and Company

Results

Three years of tirzepatide produced substantial sustained weight reduction and a markedly lower risk of progression to type 2 diabetes than placebo

Adverse events & discontinuations

Not extracted from the source in this session.

Limitations

Industry-funded. Applies to people with both obesity and prediabetes, not to the general population. The 17-week off-treatment period is short relative to a chronic condition, and delaying progression is not the same as preventing it permanently.

Practical interpretation

This is one trial, reported by Eli Lilly and Company, read directly against the registry and publication linked below — GLP Ranked has not re-run the statistics or obtained the patient-level data. Results describe group averages under trial conditions and may not describe any individual's outcome, including with a compounded, non-FDA-approved version of a similar active ingredient. Always check the primary source before citing a specific number.

Sources

  1. New England Journal of Medicine, published 13 November 2024, updated 6 March 2025 — Peer-reviewed publication
  2. SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis — ClinicalTrials.gov record NCT04184622 — Trial registry record

Cite this page

GLP Ranked. "SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis: Progression to type 2 diabetes." Updated 2026-07-24. https://glpranked.com/research/tirzepatide-diabetes-prevention/

GLP Ranked. "SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis: Progression to type 2 diabetes." Updated 2026-07-24. https://glpranked.com/research/tirzepatide-diabetes-prevention/