Clinical research
SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis: Progression to type 2 diabetes
Prespecified analysis of a phase 3 randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial. 1,032 of 2,539, over 176 weeks of treatment followed by a 17-week off-treatment period. Sponsor: Eli Lilly and Company.
SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis (NCT04184622) tested tirzepatide once weekly at 5 mg, 10 mg or 15 mg against placebo in the 1,032 surmount-1 participants who had both obesity and prediabetes.Three years of tirzepatide produced substantial sustained weight reduction and a markedly lower risk of progression to type 2 diabetes than placebo Primary source linked: the source is a citable peer-reviewed / registry record, which we have not independently re-extracted from the full paper in this session.
Study design
| Design | Prespecified analysis of a phase 3 randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial |
|---|---|
| Population | The 1,032 SURMOUNT-1 participants who had both obesity and prediabetes |
| Sample size | 1,032 of 2,539 |
| Intervention | Tirzepatide once weekly (5 mg, 10 mg or 15 mg) |
| Comparator | Placebo |
| Duration | 176 weeks of treatment followed by a 17-week off-treatment period |
| Primary endpoint | Progression to type 2 diabetes, plus three-year weight change and safety |
| Sponsor | Eli Lilly and Company |
Results
Three years of tirzepatide produced substantial sustained weight reduction and a markedly lower risk of progression to type 2 diabetes than placebo
Adverse events & discontinuations
Not extracted from the source in this session.
Limitations
Industry-funded. Applies to people with both obesity and prediabetes, not to the general population. The 17-week off-treatment period is short relative to a chronic condition, and delaying progression is not the same as preventing it permanently.
Practical interpretation
This is one trial, reported by Eli Lilly and Company, read directly against the registry and publication linked below — GLP Ranked has not re-run the statistics or obtained the patient-level data. Results describe group averages under trial conditions and may not describe any individual's outcome, including with a compounded, non-FDA-approved version of a similar active ingredient. Always check the primary source before citing a specific number.
Sources
- New England Journal of Medicine, published 13 November 2024, updated 6 March 2025 — Peer-reviewed publication
- SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis — ClinicalTrials.gov record NCT04184622 — Trial registry record
Cite this page
GLP Ranked. "SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis: Progression to type 2 diabetes." Updated 2026-07-24. https://glpranked.com/research/tirzepatide-diabetes-prevention/
GLP Ranked. "SURMOUNT-1, three-year prediabetes analysis: Progression to type 2 diabetes." Updated 2026-07-24. https://glpranked.com/research/tirzepatide-diabetes-prevention/